Overview

Pharmaceuticals and biotechs are forced to look well ahead in order to plan their investments, launch new products, and decide on launch and marketing strategies. The sales forecasting process is a critical one given the length of time it takes to come to market, and the narrow window for maximising sales before patent loss.

At Lifescience Dynamics, we offer user-friendly, robust, data-based forecasts and valuations for brand/product/therapeutic areas. Our forecasts draw upon more than 200 product/molecule forecasts over the past 15 years, combined with extensive therapy and knowledge of disease areas.

We specialise in long range, new compound and enterprise-wide forecasting. We have developed successful proprietary quantitative methods for incorporating market research data (product profile, doctor's perception and reimbursement) into models of the impact of future launches, order of entry, loss of patents, price discount or increase or a new indication. Our forecasters can also build models which can estimate peak share with very limited data, and increase the model's reliability with market research and competitive intelligence data.

Our enterprise-wide forecasting solutions incorporate both new product and in-line product forecasts. They are based on both epidemiology, past script sales, and allow for assumptions and future events. They pick up ex-factory sales data from ERP systems such as SAP or Oracle Financials. For these solutions we have partnered with two IT firms who undertake all technical issues relating to secure web portals and Oracle databases for company-wide implementation.

For our valuation projects we employ a triangulated methodology using market value, intrinsic value and dynamic value. For peak share calculations we have developed specialist market research techniques using patient diaries, and we target product profiles in a conjoint-based approach; by fusing perception data with utility data we are able to provide unique adaptive and choice-based modelling techniques. Our market modelling and forecasting practice specialists have a diverse range of expertise, including strong medical, analytical, quantitative and programming skills. 

Services

Our forecasting and modelling services include the following:

• Cross-border trade/import modelling
• In/out license evaluation and valuation
• New product launch sequence modelling
• Post patent expiry and strategy simulation
• Return on investment modelling
• We offer the following forecasting models:
• Super express model - A quick turnaround, epidemiology (secondary data) driven and patient-based forecast.
  • Market share by order of entry or analogue
• Express model - Epidemiology (patient numbers) or demand (Rx) driven and patient-based forecast. Market share by analogue
• Advance model - Epidemiology (patient numbers) and/or demand (Rx) driven with merged patient numbers and script numbers.
  • Market share by Juster scale / primary research or Monte Carlo simulation
• Scenario planning and simulation forecast model - For modelling 'what if' analysis.
• Epidemiology (patient numbers) and/or demand (Rx) driven with merged patient numbers and script numbers. Market share by conjoint (quantitative) and/or Monte Carlo simulation.
  • Enterprise-wide total forecasting - For new pipeline and in-line products. Driven by a user friendly secure portal with on-line  templates and tools to build, upload and search for forecast models.
• Features of our models include 'scenario simulation', use of multiple market share algorithms, with global epidemiology and population data available for all key diseases and markets.