Paediatric vaccines in BRIC/emerging markets

Background and objectives

Lifescience Dynamics was invited to investigate opportunities for expansion of our client's paediatric vaccines in Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico and Turkey.

Objectives included market understanding, pricing points in the private market, concept testing and development of ideal product profiles.

Approach

Key opinion leaders, policy makers and influencers, front line doctors and parents were interviewed in the target market.

• Research was conducted in person and over the phone

Results delivered

• Burden of influenza disease and seriousness of influenza in young children
• How clinical trials should be set up
• Barriers to vaccination included
• Price points prophylaxis for national coverage via government initiatives
• Key decision makers for vaccinations: government guidelines, family practitioners, paediatricians, nursery entrance requirements, family elders and parents
  • Price points prophylaxis for where both parents work as well as where only one works

Demand forecast and ideal profile development

Background and objectives

Our client's influenza vaccine franchise wished to find out what would be the future demand landscape in the United States for influenza vaccines, taking into account new differentiated products entering the market place over the next 10 years, and assuming no supply or distribution issues. Other objectives included:

• Assessment of the impact of entry of various differentiated products into a market without supply constraints
• To quantify the likely market performance of various differentiated products
• To project hypothetical market shares, based on trade-off with current product options, of various differentiated products

Approach

Research was conducted online using a conjoint exercise to assess the ideal product profile and also to understand potential demand for various differentiated products.

• 2,000 consumers and 500 doctors were interviewed
• In order to understand diffusion of various products into the market we employed Bass diffusion techniques plus Juster scale uptake modelling
• We utilised adaptive choice-based conjoint to model various vaccine attributes and their relative impact on product preferences among consumers and physicians, in order to identify those attributes of the client's future products which would most enhance or depress future consumer demand.

Results delivered

In order to forecast how demand for influenza vaccines, including both current and future products of our client, would grow or diminish in coming years, we constructed a market share modeller in Excel, one of many tools which allowed us to evaluate market scenarios with different orders of entry for numerous products.

Market entry strategy

Background and objectives

Our client wished to build an oncology franchise based on their lead product, a novel minor-groove DNA binding agent. The first indication targeted was 'malignant soft tissue sarcoma'. This indication was to be followed up with these indications:

• Renal cell carcinoma
• Metastatic malignant melanoma
• Non-small lung cancer (NSCLC)
• Metastatic breast cancer
• Metastatic ovarian cancer

The primary objective was to evaluate in strategic and financial terms different market entry options, from total licensing-out of the asset to marketing the product themselves, with intermediate options of co-promotion partnerships with companies with established oncology franchises.

For the stand-alone approach a detailed European business plan was prepared which included forecasting and the valuation of different options, the most important of which was whether to employ a contract sales force.

Approach

We designed a three phase project:

• Business analysis
  • Secondary research - external data
  • Internal financial data
  • Internal interviews
  • Forecast modelling
• Financial modelling
  • Building free cash flow model and NPV models
  • Risk analysis
  • External interviews
• Solutions and recommendations
  • Evaluation of financial outputs
  • Recommendations and presentation

Results delivered

A complete going-to-market strategy based on a robust forecast and financial numbers. We evaluated seven strategic options and prioritised them based on ROI and the strategic implications and long term goals of the company.

• Greenfield - 100% organic effort
• Contract sales force
• Co-promo win-win
• Co-promo favourable-profit share
• Co-promo favourable-high milestones
• Licence-out
• Co-promotion with big pharma company