A market opportunity study

Background and objectives

Our client wanted to understand the market potential for a biological in its primary target indication of psoriasis in the top six markets. Main research objectives were related to gaining deep understanding of awareness, perceptions of current drugs, unmet needs, potential usage of a biologic, opportunities and barriers to administration, and ideal product profile.

Approach

We took a two steps approach:

• Secondary research: current market analysis, epidemiology, audit of future pipeline
• Qualitative research:
  • 15 in-depth interviews per market, with quantification from five patient record forms per respondent.
  • We also interviewed 10 payers and insurance company personnel.
  • We tested product concepts using the Juster scale to compute peak share for modelling forecasting.

Results delivered

Report presentation and strategic recommendations focused on:

• Market understanding, patient segmentation and target segments for client's drug
• Unmet need and opportunity for our client's product
• Ideal product profile

A communication study: creative concepts and detail aid testing

Background and objectives

We were asked to test creative concepts and detail aids. The objective of the research was to test communication of the following key messages:

• X anti-perspirant is clinically effective on axillary hyperhidrosis, and provides complete relief from arm pit sweating under normal conditions including:
  • Cool clothing
  • Avoiding foods that trigger sweating
  • Reducing stress, tension or anxiety
  • Increased attention to personal hygiene
• It is fast acting and has a long duration
• It is superior to aluminium chloride which is the active ingredient of some roll-on or aerosol anti-perspirants
• It is safe and well tolerated
• Detail aid:
  • Obtain reactions to the detail and detail aid
  • Effectiveness in getting across communication objectives messages, message flow, credibility, relevance to practice and clarity in targeting all patient types and competitors
  • To establish whether detail aid offers new information which will motivate dermatologist's usage intentions
  • Identify any objections to the messages (specifically front page set-up)
  • Suggest improvements for both detail aid and communication of detail aid by sales force
• Advertisement concept:
  • Confirm that refinements made since the last round of concept testing are on target
  • Confirm whether it is effective at communicating the brand's key messages (i.e. complete relief), and if this is a unique proposition (i.e. lid swelling)
  • Establish whether headlines/taglines together with visual are communicating effectively: whether copy/bullet points/strap lines are compelling/attention-grabbing, credible and consistent with communication objectives

Approach

We conducted 10 IDIs using neuro-linguistic programming (NLP) and other projective techniques with self-completion (using very experienced NLP trained moderators). Respondents recruited on the basis of pre-defined screening criteria:

• Predominantly work in private-only or group practice
• Are very experienced
• Have completed, on average. 18 years in the practice
• Half had been in the practice for more than 20 years
• They see and treat a relatively high number of patients per quarter during the summer season
• They are relatively set in their ways and traditional, but welcome new products
• They mainly use older established products

Results

• Overall reaction to creative concepts with positives and negatives for each concept
• Overall reaction to detail aid as listed below:

Patient and doctor segmentation/motivational cluster analysis

Background and objectives

Lifescience Dynamics was commissioned to carry out a patient and doctor segmentation study in our client's core therapeutic area in order to inform decision-making regarding detailing and communications.

Approach

Research was conducted online with patients and doctors and a choice task/conjoint exercise was used to assess the weight of various drivers on the uptake of our client's product:

• Patients were segmented by their unmet needs, as well as the perceived importance of various product attributes (assessed using the conjoint exercise)
• Physicians were segmented by their uptake tendencies (early adopters, laggards, etc.)
• Physicians were also segmented by their product and attribute preferences

Results delivered

Our client was equipped with the information they needed to provide their sales force with the information and targeting information necessary to optimise product uptake.

Patient segments identified included:

• Balanced efficacy cluster
• Single-minded efficacy cluster
• Anti-preservative cluster
• Side-effect/doctor administration cluster

Physician segments identified included:

• Contra-indication cluster
• Professional administration cluster
• Anti-mercury cluster

Medical/scientific intelligence - Six-target competitive R&D assessment in diabetes

Background and objectives

Our client engaged us to support their efforts in a 6-target R&D assessment of the current and planned R&D diabetes treatment discovery landscape. KITs included:

• Current scientific development including status, approach and theories
• Clinical trial intelligence (phase 1 - phase 3)
• Product development road map
• Product lifecycle management strategy

Approach

A team of six research analysts was assembled to support the primary research efforts of the project.

Primary research efforts focused on KOLs, clinical trial partners and research scientists, as well as attendance at major medical conferences and symposiums. Project duration was three months.

Results delivered

• We were able to provide detailed intelligence concerning the development strategy for all six targets.
• We were able to provide detailed clinical trial data on five clinical trials.
• We were able to gain detailed insight from KOLs concerning the various development strategies of the targeted competitors.
• We provided a SWOT analysis of the client's development strategy in comparison to the targeted competitors.
• We provided a detailed development timeline for each competitor which provided the client with an effective and efficient benchmarking tool.

Single product

Background and objectives

Our client asked us to conduct a market analysis of polycystic kidney disease (PCKD) for a product in their portfolio and wanted a forecast for the top six markets for their product.

Approach

We used a multiphase methodology to cover public domain information which was supplemented by primary market research. The outputs from these two activities, such as epidemiology and key drivers fed into an Excel-based forecast. Our forecast used a Bass Diffusion algorithm to model new product (new technology) penetration. The forecast covered market size, growth, potential market penetration, volume and dollar sales for its product.

Results delivered

The deliverables included a PowerPoint slide report and an Excel-based forecast model. The report detailed all our key findings, analysis, forecasting approach, assumptions, findings and recommendations. The key findings had 'decision tree' for patient flows and referral patterns in each target market.

The model was interactive with an ability to forecast the size of the PCKD market over a period of 10 years, and the sales volume and sales revenue of the product in the top six markets. The forecast model was a custom written programme/tool provided for the client, with the relevant training and support (via telephone). The model allowed quick visualisation of data sets and easy changes of variables in the future.

Total market

Background and objectives

The client was planning to launch a fixed dose combination product for asthma. They wanted to create a scenario planning and forecasting tool to determine the potential share of gain/loss of products against the putative profile at the time of the launch. This was in order to assist in defining a minimum commercially acceptable profile to provide simulations of the relevant therapeutic area markets post launch.

Approach

We undertook a quantitative market survey (n=780) using discrete choice modelling to develop a utility model of the market, and then fused perception data to the utility model to create 'a more complete' picture of the actual marketplace. This was re-calibrated using IMS data. This model produced peak shares at 100% awareness level among GPs, allergist chest physicians and pulmonologists.

Results delivered

The deliverables included a PowerPoint slide report and a custom written programme with an Excel front end and an Access based database in the backend. The front end had two models running in the background:

• Utility and perception model driven by attributes and claims
• A Bass Diffusion-based model with epidemiology and patient scripts from IMS

he model covered the whole market with more than 400 products, and was totally interactive. It had the ability to forecast the market size of the different classes of treatments, such as ICSs, LABAs, SABAs and the leukotriene antagonists market, over a period of 10 years, as well as the sales volume and the sales revenue of the product in the top six markets. This offered the ability to change the order of launch, price points, discounts and to pull out any product from the market.

P&R market assessment of therapy for moderate to severe psoriasis

Background and objectives

The overall objective was to understand and describe the current and forward-looking market in moderate to severe psoriasis.

• Description of market landscape:
  • Treatment algorithms and patient characterisation
  • Biologic market realities
• Evaluation of clinical and economic positioning
  • To provide viable pricing range for launch
• Assessment of the US and EU5 market potential for entry into psoriasis
  • To provide forecast and forecast model
• To support client's decision-making processes for development of commercially optimal pivotal trials
  • To include recommendations for trial comparators

Approach

We designed a four phase approach with forecast modelling:

• Secondary research including qualitative and quantitative data on epidemiology, broad patient segments and pipeline analysis
• Primary market research with KOL's and front-line dermatologists, utilising a patient diary approach
• Evaluation of pricing and reimbursement aspects of the psoriasis market, including the potential for client's two internal compounds, leading to a strategic plan - price points in each market and launch order for EU5
• Integration of all materials into a forecasting model designed to evaluate market potential for our client

Results delivered

We provided a complete picture of the market place and market positioning for two products at two price points. We also provided a pricing and reimbursement strategy and recommended a comparator for head-to-head trial. And finally we provided market research, patient record form data and forecast model for the top US and EU5 markets.

Product lifecycle management - Optimising the current and future ophthalmology franchise with a portfolio strategy in the face of impending generics

Background and objectives

The client, a top 10 pharmaceutical company, engaged us to undertake a strategy evaluation and formulation project taking into account pending generic threats facing ophthalmology franchises.

The key challenges facing our client were as follows:

• The optimal strategies for maximising short-term sales of the existing products may not be consistent with the long-term objectives of the portfolio.
• As market leading products in the X market, Z and Y will be important reference products for new products in development. This suggested that it is important to maintain the price of the brands as far as possible.
• However, it was also important to maintain a strong presence in the ophthalmology market as a platform for the new products. This necessitated targeted price reductions to maintain market share.
• In most markets, loss of patent is expected to occur at a similar time to the launch of the first new product. In some cases the exact timing of launch (following reimbursement negotiations where needed) relative to generic entry may be critical.
• The issue was more pressing in two European markets where generic entry could be significantly earlier than the launch of the new product.
• Price reductions in these two European markets in response to generic entry, may be optimal for those markets, but may have a knock-on effect through referencing pricing or parallel trade in other EU countries with longer patent life.
• In the US the client faced a particular challenge with the loss of patent of a competitor product in a different class but of a direct competitor. The possible implications for our client's product X and Y's volume, and to assess measures taken by ABC needed to be understood and strategies required to deal with these.

Approach

This was a large project lasting eight months with multiple phases, advance analytics, analogue modelling, competitive intelligence on generic companies, quantitative market research to measure brand equity, payer research to develop a pricing strategy for the follow-on product, and finally modelling of various strategies and tactics at country level as well as global ROI analysis.

• Intelligence about likely generics (Stages 1A, 1B 1C and 1D)
• Impact of generics on brand price and share based on country systems analysis and analogues (Stages 1C, 1D)
• Assessment of the pricing opportunity for new products (2C)
• Payer research: this tested the likely response from physicians in an environment where generic X and Y were available (2A).
• Primary intelligence: this tested the likely response from generic manufacturers; their interest and capabilities to manufacture and distribute copies or APIs of our client's product.
• Primary quantitative research: to provide the team with robust quantitative numbers for forecast modelling of revenue, and produce a market share simulations model for current products, and to measure brand equity of X and Y brands with ophthalmologists.

Results delivered

There were outputs from each activity, such as CI, which highlighted "intense" generic competition and MR "low" brand equity.

We delivered at each milestone, finally delivering global and regional strategic options of viable strategies, looking at all options, such as:

• Manufacturing
• Generics launches
• Reformulations
• Bridging
• Value enhancement

We also undertook a roadshow workshop for each of six markets and provided a template and guidance to co-ordinate strategies and tactics. All options were backed up by financial models.