Single product

Background and objectives

Our client asked us to conduct a market analysis of polycystic kidney disease (PCKD) for a product in their portfolio and wanted a forecast for the top six markets for their product.

Approach

We used a multiphase methodology to cover public domain information which was supplemented by primary market research. The outputs from these two activities, such as epidemiology and key drivers fed into an Excel-based forecast. Our forecast used a Bass Diffusion algorithm to model new product (new technology) penetration. The forecast covered market size, growth, potential market penetration, volume and dollar sales for its product.

Results delivered

The deliverables included a PowerPoint slide report and an Excel-based forecast model. The report detailed all our key findings, analysis, forecasting approach, assumptions, findings and recommendations. The key findings had 'decision tree' for patient flows and referral patterns in each target market.

The model was interactive with an ability to forecast the size of the PCKD market over a period of 10 years, and the sales volume and sales revenue of the product in the top six markets. The forecast model was a custom written programme/tool provided for the client, with the relevant training and support (via telephone). The model allowed quick visualisation of data sets and easy changes of variables in the future.

Total market

Background and objectives

The client was planning to launch a fixed dose combination product for asthma. They wanted to create a scenario planning and forecasting tool to determine the potential share of gain/loss of products against the putative profile at the time of the launch. This was in order to assist in defining a minimum commercially acceptable profile to provide simulations of the relevant therapeutic area markets post launch.

Approach

We undertook a quantitative market survey (n=780) using discrete choice modelling to develop a utility model of the market, and then fused perception data to the utility model to create 'a more complete' picture of the actual marketplace. This was re-calibrated using IMS data. This model produced peak shares at 100% awareness level among GPs, allergist chest physicians and pulmonologists.

Results delivered

The deliverables included a PowerPoint slide report and a custom written programme with an Excel front end and an Access based database in the backend. The front end had two models running in the background:

• Utility and perception model driven by attributes and claims
• A Bass Diffusion-based model with epidemiology and patient scripts from IMS

he model covered the whole market with more than 400 products, and was totally interactive. It had the ability to forecast the market size of the different classes of treatments, such as ICSs, LABAs, SABAs and the leukotriene antagonists market, over a period of 10 years, as well as the sales volume and the sales revenue of the product in the top six markets. This offered the ability to change the order of launch, price points, discounts and to pull out any product from the market.