Single product

Background and objectives

Our client asked us to conduct a market analysis of polycystic kidney disease (PCKD) for a product in their portfolio and wanted a forecast for the top six markets for their product.

Approach

We used a multiphase methodology to cover public domain information which was supplemented by primary market research. The outputs from these two activities, such as epidemiology and key drivers fed into an Excel-based forecast. Our forecast used a Bass Diffusion algorithm to model new product (new technology) penetration. The forecast covered market size, growth, potential market penetration, volume and dollar sales for its product.

Results delivered

The deliverables included a PowerPoint slide report and an Excel-based forecast model. The report detailed all our key findings, analysis, forecasting approach, assumptions, findings and recommendations. The key findings had 'decision tree' for patient flows and referral patterns in each target market.

The model was interactive with an ability to forecast the size of the PCKD market over a period of 10 years, and the sales volume and sales revenue of the product in the top six markets. The forecast model was a custom written programme/tool provided for the client, with the relevant training and support (via telephone). The model allowed quick visualisation of data sets and easy changes of variables in the future.